New Research: Proposed 10% Credit Card Rate Cap Would Result in Up to 159 Million Americans Losing Access to Credit

New data from credit card issuers accounting for roughly 75% of the market shows that a proposed 10% federal credit card interest rate cap would significantly reduce access to credit for millions of consumers nationwide, and even those with good credit scores who pay their bills on time will be affected by the rate cap.

The new analysis assesses the expected impact of the “10 Percent Credit Card Interest Rate Cap Act,” which is sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley and Bernie Sanders. The analysis, which is based on data collected by ABA from Dec. 5 - Jan.16 and reflects the current interest rate environment, finds:

• 74%–85% of open credit card accounts nationwide would be closed or have their credit lines drastically reduced.
• At least 137 million cardholders – and up to 159 million – would no longer be able to use their cards.
• State-by-state analyses are consistent with the national data, indicating the pain from price caps would be felt in every corner of the country.

While the proposed rate cap aims to lower consumer costs, the new data demonstrates that it would instead undermine affordability by effectively eliminating the credit card as a spending tool and vital source of liquidity for tens of millions of Americans.

“This new data is clear: interest rate caps lead to fewer options, higher costs and reduced access—especially for those who can least afford to lose their credit card.” said ABA President and CEO Rob Nichols. “We urge the administration and Congress to carefully consider the significant harm a rate cap would have on U.S. households and the broader economy. This is not the solution to the affordability challenge.”

Widespread Contraction in Credit Access
The new analysis shows that the impact of a 10% APR cap would go far beyond riskier borrowers. Indeed, most cardholders — including those who pay their balances in full each month — would face negative consequences such as tighter credit standards, lower credit limits, higher fees, reduced benefits and rewards, and fewer low-rate promotional offers.

Even cardholders with high credit scores would be affected:

• Among cardholders with VantageScores above 600, between 71% and 84% would see their accounts either closed or experience a sharp reduction in their credit limit.
• Many so-called “super-prime” borrowers with VantageScores above 780 also would be negatively impacted by a 10% APR cap.

Adverse Impact on Affordability and the Economy
While a 10% credit card interest rate cap may sound appealing on the surface, the data indicates that it would harm, not help, affordability for most Americans.

Key concerns include:

• Loss of access to highly regulated credit during emergencies, forcing consumers to less-regulated, and in many cases more expensive alternatives
• Reduction of rewards and benefits that help cardholders manage their finances responsibly
• Reduction in consumer spending power
• Harm to small businesses and the broader U.S. economy that depend on the nearly $3.6 trillion in annual spending on consumer credit cards.

State-Specific Impact
A full state-by-state breakdown, including the share of cardholders at risk of losing access to credit, is available.

See the national impact.  

Methodology
To estimate the impact of a credit card APR cap on U.S. cardholders, ABA surveyed card-issuing member banks accounting for roughly three-fourths of the credit card industry, based on 2024 estimates published by The Nilson Report. The issuers were asked to estimate the likely consumer impact of the Hawley-Sanders bill, S.381. The proposed legislation imposes a 10% effective APR cap and includes anti-circumvention limits on non-finance charges.*

Subject-matter experts at each issuer were asked to estimate, based on their experience pricing credit risk, the share of accounts that would effectively lose access to credit — either due to account closure or due to the issuer reducing a cardholder’s credit line to the amount currently owed (i.e., eliminating the credit function of the card). Estimates were provided across five risk tiers, as defined by VantageScore: Deep Subprime (<500), Subprime (500–600), Near-Prime (601–660), Prime (661–780), and Super-Prime (>780).

Respondents were also asked to indicate the relative likelihood that credit card issuers would employ various strategies to offset the impact of the cap, to the extent permitted by law. These strategies included increasing annual fees, adjusting other fees, reducing cardholder rewards or other benefits, lowering credit limits, or adjusting grace periods.

ABA conducted the member survey from December 4, 2025, through January 16, 2026. After closing the survey, ABA anonymized and aggregated the issuer responses and analyzed them alongside credit bureau data. The credit bureau data detailed the number of existing cardholders and open accounts in each state, by risk tier. The risk tiers in the credit bureau data were the same as the risk tiers used in the survey.

By combining the survey responses with the state-specific credit bureau data, ABA calculated the number of accounts and cardholders that would effectively lose access to credit card credit under the Hawley-Sanders scenario, both nationally and state-by-state.

*Although S.381 included a five-year sunset as originally proposed, this was treated as equivalent to a permanent change for the purpose of this survey after subject-matter experts indicated a five-year sunset would not materially differ from a permanent change for the purpose of pricing credit risk.

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Recent ABA resources on credit card interest rates:

• Joint statement from ABA, Bank Policy Institute, Consumer Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum and Independent Community Bankers of America on proposed interest rate cap (Jan. 2026) 
• Rate caps hurt consumers they’re designed to help (Nov. 2025)
• New Survey: Americans Highly Value Their Credits Cards, Oppose Policy Changes that Threaten Card Reward Programs (Oct. 2025)
• ABA, 52 State Bankers Associations Strongly Oppose Attaching Credit Card Rate Caps to GENIUS Act (May 2025)
• State Bankers Association Letter in Opposition to S.381, the 10 Percent Credit Card Interest Rate Cap Act (Feb. 2025)
• ABA: Congress Should Reject Government Price Controls on Credit Cards (Feb 2025)
• Why price controls on credit cards harm consumers (Feb 2025)